Iowa caucus math

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Iowa caucus math

This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics diaries. Turn up early for signing in and getting ready.

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Specially with needing to register your first preference early. Participation : Must be 18 on 3rd Nov General election day to participate. Bring a valid ID if you plan to register.

Although if you are reading this you should have already checked you were registered a year ago. Although not needed for caucus. This stage 3 event a state convention is planned with delegates. This number has been distributed further down the chain to stage 2 and then to stage 1 all proportionally based on the number of party members, how many voted for Democrat governor, and how many voted for Democrat president.

What is up for grabs? Each congressional district has set number of delegates to be allocated from results of that particular district. The statewide at-large delegates are allocated from statewide results.

iowa caucus math

Basic Data: There are 41 delegates available in total in the state. There are 4 congressional districts CD. Most of these units have an odd number of allocations. Therefore the benefits of even a tiny difference in support are immediately visible in number of delegates achieved.

What is needed to make the difference in number of National convention delegates? Normally here in a voting primary state I would include a table with districts and percentage support needed. But this is Iowa caucus and given the current level of spread in support coupled with non-homogenous support ie support for different candidates are in small pockets all over the map it is meaningless to include here for now.

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I will be including it in other states that will be covered. Thereby providing a hard to compensate for edge in overall number of delegates.But when the party delivers its updated results, which it has promised to do Monday, they may hardly reassure candidates and voters. Internal emails from Saturday night reveal that the party will not correct even blatant errors in the official handwritten tally sheets from individual precincts.

Thanks to greater transparency in reporting the caucus results this year, outsiders were able to identify internal inconsistencies. The New York Times reported last week that some precincts, for example, had awarded more delegates to candidates than they were allotted. Those photographs provided further examples of problems.

But because the caucus chair and secretary of each precinct had certified the results on the worksheets, along with representatives of candidates, the documents could not be readjusted without violating election law, the state party lawyer said. Therefore, any changes or tampering with the sheet could result in a claim of election interference or misconduct.

There are various reasons that the worksheets have errors and may appear to not be accurate; however, changing the math would change the information agreed upon and certified by the caucusgoers.

In response to pressure by candidates and the chair of the Democratic National Committee, Tom Perez, the Iowa state party permitted campaigns to flag precincts that had problems. On Saturday, it said 95 had been identified by three campaigns — those of Sanders, Buttigieg and Sen.

Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

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But the internal emails also show that the party had told campaigns it would not correct bad calculations or other errors on the caucus worksheets. These cards were collected at the end of the evening and were included in a packet that was sent to state party headquarters by the caucus chairs. The deadline for campaigns to request a recount is noon Monday.

But even a full recount may not be definitive. Several caucus chairs said in interviews that not all caucusgoers had turned in their preference cards. They left into the Iowa evening after performing a proud civic duty, with no hint of the mess to come. Skip to content. Officials tabulate the results of an initial head count at a caucus site in Des Moines on Feb. Latest Election Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump: The general election is here — and transformed.

After Wisconsin voted in middle of coronavirus pandemic, Democrats and Republicans prepare for state-by-state legal fight over election safety. In battleground Wisconsin, long voter lines, no election results and a missed opportunity to build toward November. Most Read. From dinner to funeral to birthday party to church service: How 1 sick person led to 16 likely cases andFeb 10, At long last we have a winner, or two winners, take your pick.

Bernie Sanders won the popular vote but Peter Buttigieg will get a plurality of delegates. The Associated Press, which historically verifies election results and makes calls on the outcome of races, has not allotted the final delegate to Mr. Buttigieg because of the errors in the caucus results-counting, nor has The A. The Times, which has followed The A. And the new results are not necessarily final : Campaigns have until noon on Monday to request that the statewide vote count be re-examined, after the party moved the deadline from Friday.

The party could not change even blatant miscalculations on the worksheets, according to a lawyer for the party, because they were a legal record and altering them would be a crime. By the way, this includes the fact that some precincts awarded more delegates to candidates than they were allotted.

iowa caucus math

Apparently, that is a matter of opinion. Math is Hard. Once certified, correcting math and spreadsheet errors becomes a matter of "personal opinion". This even includes precincts awarding more delegates than they are entitled to. It seems to me that certifying piss poor math is personal opinion and the math is fact. But even with a degree in civil engineering and several courses in calculus plus differential equations, I stand corrected.

Apologies offered. Clearly, this new math is tricky, which is why we need an app. Mike "Mish" Shedlock. I dont know sounds like the russians are messing with our democracy again those dastardly devils. Somebody should ask Bernie again if he thinks it's rigged yet. Just when I was thinking the dems could get any nuttier, they do. I stand corrected.

Caucus Math

Buttigieg is a warmonger. That's why the MICC is setting him up to win. I can survive Sanders' socialism. I won't vote for either nor Trump but I prefer that those who still vote, elect someone who will get US out of other countries' affairs whether they're good affairs or bad ones.The Iowa Democratic caucusesthe first nominating contests in the Democratic Party primaries for the presidential electiontook place on February 3, The Iowa caucuses are closed caucuses wherein only registered members of a party are eligible to vote.

Following a three-day delay in vote reporting, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Buttigieg had won two more delegates than Sanders, while Sanders won the popular vote. The Iowa Democratic caucuses were controversial due to the delays in reporting the results. These delays were caused in part by problems with a mobile application created by Shadow Inc. Further controversy resulted from errors and inconsistencies regarding the calculation and reporting of state delegate equivalents SDEs in several caucus locations.

iowa caucus math

As the event was a closed caucus, only Iowans registered as Democrats could vote. However, Iowans who did not register as Democrats before the caucus day could still register as such on caucus night itself at their designated precinct, thereby gaining full voting rights at the event. The votes are cast by physically standing in a section of the caucus site corresponding to the preferred candidate.

Proxy voting or absentee voting i. In all precinct caucuses that elect more than one county convention delegate, the presidential candidates must meet a viability threshold within the individual precinct in order to qualify as a viable candidate.

The thresholds are: [28] [29]. If the number of viable groups formed in the first round or final round exceeds the number of electable county convention delegates in the precinct, then the smallest viable group s are forced to realign until the number of viable groups no longer exceeds the number of delegates.

Precinct caucuses that elect a single county convention delegate have no viability threshold and thus do not need to go through realignment, but instead elect their single delegate based upon a simple majority vote expressed by the "first alignment" round. After the final realignment round has ended and the correct maximum number of viable groups formed, then each of those viable groups supporting a candidate or being uncommitted elects the county convention delegate s their group won according to its proportional percentage share of the qualified votes won after the final alignment in the local precinct.

However, due to rounding errors, it is still possible, by following the outlined calculation procedure, that the total number of county convention delegates awarded by the precinct will be higher or lower than the delegate number to which the precinct is entitled. Therefore, as a last correctional step, the viable groups might also gain or lose a delegate depending on the size of their calculated delegate fraction before rounding in order to compensate for the rounding issue.

In this last correctional rounding procedure, a special rule ensures that a group can never lose its only county convention delegate won meaning that a fractional 0. A summary in the table below, display the ratio between state delegate equivalents SDE's and county convention delegates CCD for all of Iowa's 99 counties.

Each county has a different SDE ratio per county convention delegate, with the most populous counties having the highest SDE ratio and the least populous counties having the lowest SDE ratio.

The ratio is used when each county converts the results of won county convention delegates into the number of won SDE's. The use of a different ratio in each county mean, that some county convention delegates will be counted to be more worth in SDE-terms compared to their fellow county convention delegates elected in other counties similar to the principle of the United States Electoral Collegewhere it is possible to win the popular vote without winning the race deciding delegate count.

For the first time in the history of the Iowa caucuses, satellite caucuses around the world 60 in-state and 27 out-of-state were all organized on election day February 3, as alternative voting sites for registered Democratic Iowans who were unable to vote locally at their precinct caucus.

The list below display all types of satellite sites of which most were open for participation of all Iowans, while some were closed caucuses only for those with a private residence or workplace affiliation : [28] [31].Results from Monday night's caucuses in Iowa are still coming in. Bernie Sanders I-VT in a close second. Many of us have wondered what the hold up is and why the math is taking so long to calculate who came out victorious.

Reposting these images now with the title "Iowa Math is the NewMath. But they are not errors. This is exactly the way the Iowa Democratic Party wants the votes to be counted. From my post: "Because of the way the math was done at the caucuses, many precincts wound up with an extra delegate that got 'assigned' to one of the candidates at the end of the caucus.

We were able to look at worksheets from 18 precincts that were posted on Twitter. IowaCaucuses NewMath pic. We had originally called them 'Rounding Errors. This is exactly the way that the Iowa Democratic Party wants the votes to be counted. Just a bizarre and arcane set of rules.

It's possible that because of the way the math is being done, more of these extra delegates are being generated. IowaCaucuses pic. Multiple people online say this is not a problem, but it violates one of the basic principles of elections : that the number of voters has to match the number of cast votes. The Caucus math has a different number of voters than votes cast on many of the worksheets IowaCaucus pic.

NewMath pic. Looking at Cedar County FM as an example of the way the formula was implemented, he pointed out, "Basically everyone who left early was counted as Buttigieg, because of the way it rounded. Not some sort of byzantine calculation that only the initiated high priests of caucus history are able to navigate.

That's pretty straight forward math. But here's where things get tricky. A rule in the Iowa Democratic Party's Precinct Leader Manual says that if the number of viable delegates is higher than the number calculated based on those who voted and the candidates still in the race, an extra delegate is given out.

That extra delegate is given to the candidate with the highest decimal below. If there is a tie then a coin toss takes place for that extra delegate. These are not rounding errors. According to Friesdat, the Iowa Democratic Party has yet to respond to her inquiry about delegate calculations. I tried to contact the IDP all day for an explanation.Whether a recount will happen or not still remains to be seen. Whether or not that will happen remains to be seen. Enough is enough. In light of the problems that have emerged in the implementation of the delegate selection plan and in order to assure public confidence in the results, I am calling on the Iowa Democratic Party to immediately begin a recanvass.

CNN is reporting that he called for this recanvass because of how SDEs were being allocated at satellite sites, according to unnamed sources. Precinct sources have said online and to Heavy that many satellite locations were favoring Bernie Sanders. NEW: Perez took the step of calling for a recanvass specifically because of issues around how the Iowa Dem Party was allocating state delegate equivalents from satellite caucus sites, two sources tell CNN.

One source said the DNC wanted to get ahead of candidate recount calls. Bernie Sanders pointed out in a press conference that the SDE number, which is still being determined, is not as important anymore as it was in the past due to changes in the DNC rules.

But this difference…is meaningless because we are both likely to receive the same number of national delegates… Those actual delegates, not the state delegates, are the ones we need now in the nominating process.

Shortly after Iowa Democrats tweeted about correcting and adding results, the IDP got some corrections of their own. And he added the following.

Other people noticed some strange discrepancies when Bernie Sanders appeared to have the most votes on a second expression vote, but Pete Buttigieg was awarded more delegates. Daniel Nichanian of The Appeal noted that Sanders should have two delegates also, based on the math for converting SDW to county delegates. This created a lot of theories and conjectures on Twitter regarding the delay.

Daniel Clark, a precinct captain for Bernie Sanders in Iowa who is also now a county delegate for Iowa, has been following the errors closely and noting when IDP needed to correct something.

Many of us started this journey in and we have been here all along. We have the momentum and we are on the path to victory. Like Nina Turner says, he may be 78 but we are about to make him People also noticed rounding errors, which you can see an example of in the tweet below. I haven't gone thru all 12, but at least some are indeed wrong. In fact, this entire Twitter thread below shows a lot of math errors discovered by people besides the Iowa Democratic Party that might give Sanders a higher SDE if the errors are confirmed.

Check out this thread. I laid out a slew of caucus math errors in a bunch of precincts.

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Note: disregard the two referenced 1 delegate precincts, those are quirky and operate on majority rule. I was thrown off because they aren't accurately reflected in the final alignment counts.

It showed Sanders having 2, votes.

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However, others have questioned the initial results, so the exact error is still being determined. Heavy has reached out to Schwartz for comment. Others said that reports about Polk County were reported wrong, noting that Sanders had won two delegates, but one of those was given to Warren. Here's my tweet night of reporting same and another view of the board in Polk — Des Moines Precinct There were also questions about precincts where Sanders was viable in the first round but not viable in the second.

At least one of the precincts not yet reported by the IDP when they released 97 percent of the results on Wednesday night said they had turned in their numbers and it showed a Sanders win. Bernie won our Precinct by half the delegates and half the votes. I took unpaid time from work to volunteer as a trained and certified Caucus Chair for my precinct. I only stepped up to volunteer bc nobody else would here, and I wanted to ensure our community has their voices heard and votes counted.The Iowa caucuses are the first event of each U.

The system dates back to the early s, and almost everyone abandoned the caucus over time—but not for a long time, until Originally, caucuses were a complex series of electoral focus groups who chose delegates, who then chose candidates. But how does a caucus work, and how does the math break down? There are seven Democratic candidates eligible for the caucuses, so seven people holding signs will stand along the edges and corners of the space, and voters will literally walk to the candidate they want.

In most precincts, the threshold for a candidate to continue is 15 percent. For any number of candidates up to and including sixthat means the first round of voting with your feet could lead to everyone being viable. Silver says this is the first year the first round of delegates will be counted and considered.

How do the Iowa caucuses work?

But Silver says these voters are more likely to move to larger groups, not smaller ones still fighting for viability. They must replace every voter who leaves and attract enough extra people to get to 15 percent.

And although six candidates could emerge viable if there were a virtual tie, the Democratic field is more stratified than that. There could easily be four viable candidates, though. Inthere were only three candidates in contention, and Sec. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders came out in almost a tie.

Iowa will report the first count of each precinct and then the final count, which is who is viable after the second-choice dust settles. The final count is turned into delegate numbers for the Democratic National Convention.

In a political climate where people are interested in potentially changing how electoral delegates are assigned or if they even should be, the Iowa Caucuses are interesting because of the complicated layers of proportions.

Does making ratios based on past general elections and then filtering them by candidates make sense? Silver says this setup gives more power to rural voters, whose numbers are represented more in general election numbers than in caucuses.

Indeed, in a series of weighted and proportional metrics, this could be the weightiest one of all. Type keyword s to search. Today's Top Stories. Chip Somodevilla. The Iowa caucuses —the first, biggest event of the U. Here, we explain the muddled math that goes into determining the delegate count. Boston Globe Getty Images. Related Stories. Advertisement - Continue Reading Below. More From Math.


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